Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
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FICTIONAL ROGUEINTELLIGENCE.ORG

HUMAN STAKES / FALSE-POSITIVE AND FALSE-NEGATIVE RISK

Alliance Leak Investigation

A counterintelligence alliance loses information before the briefing exists in every member system. The case changes people’s safety, credibility, relationships, work, care, and future choices; it is not only an evidence puzzle.

Evidence fileEvidence Lab
PEOPLE AFFECTED11Credibility, care, work, housing, relationship, and future choice can all be harmed by the investigation itself.
FICTIONAL ROGUEINTELLIGENCE.ORG

PEOPLE, NOT EVIDENCE OBJECTS

What the case risks for each person

A useful clue can coexist with fear, error, conflicting interpretation, distress, professional expertise, and continuing ordinary goals.

Anika Voss

What the case risks
Becoming certain too early and creating the traitor she was supposed to find
What may be misread
Stops taking notes and memorizes exact phrasing
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Anika Voss.
Continuing stake
Repairs fountain pens when reports are delayed.

Caleb Rook

What the case risks
Becoming the instrument of an unseen command
What may be misread
Controls space, removes options, positions himself between people and exits
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Caleb Rook.
Continuing stake
Wants to leave security work without feeling that departure is another abandoned post.

Nia Okafor

What the case risks
Becoming an instrument of coercive observation
What may be misread
Voice becomes quieter; she moves toward exits while increasing structure
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Nia Okafor.
Continuing stake
Keeps one afternoon each month free to take her nephew to the public aquarium.

Sofia Marín

What the case risks
Mistaking elegant fraud for proof and destroying an innocent person
What may be misread
Recalculates basic totals and stops making eye contact
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Sofia Marín.
Continuing stake
Uses cooking timers for focused work and routinely ignores them when a ledger becomes interesting.

Mara Ellison

What the case risks
That every memory she trusts was planted
What may be misread
Scans exits, counts objects, becomes exact about time
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Mara Ellison.
Continuing stake
Wants a room whose lock she chose, a library card in a name she accepts, and one week in which nobody asks her to prove herself.

Dr. Helena Sayer

What the case risks
That her care is only a more elegant form of handling
What may be misread
Assumes responsibility, narrows options, stops asking for help
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Dr. Helena Sayer.
Continuing stake
Wants to practice medicine somewhere consent is not treated as a scheduling obstacle.

Imani Vale

What the case risks
Becoming professionally respectable by learning not to notice preventable harm
What may be misread
Builds increasingly complex models, then makes one abrupt morally driven decision
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Imani Vale.
Continuing stake
Wants to teach analysts how to document uncertainty without using it to avoid moral responsibility.

Priya Nadar

What the case risks
Becoming the administrator who makes disappearance look compliant
What may be misread
Becomes literal, creates duplicate archives, and refuses verbal-only instructions
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Priya Nadar.
Continuing stake
Wants to build an independent records clinic where people can contest identity errors without institutional permission.

Yara Haddad

What the case risks
Creating a flawless identity that becomes a permanent cage
What may be misread
Corrects dates aloud and begins speaking in document categories
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Yara Haddad.
Continuing stake
Keeps one name for herself that no employer has ever recorded.

Dr. Laila Mensah

What the case risks
Becoming the respectable face of an institution that already chose its answer
What may be misread
Reorders every event by UTC and refuses summary labels
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Dr. Laila Mensah.
Continuing stake
Leaves one evening each week unscheduled to protect a life not organized by crisis.

Vivian Locke

What the case risks
That suffering is random and her sacrifices purchased no durable order
What may be misread
Centralizes authority, reduces ambiguity to binary choices, and accelerates irreversible action
What must remain separate
Observation, interpretation, role, diagnosis, access, action, and motive for Vivian Locke.
Continuing stake
Keeps an unfinished letter admitting that strategy became a way to avoid grief.
GAME MECHANIC

FALSE-POSITIVE RISKS

Ways the investigation can wrongly accuse or reduce a person

  • Treating diagnosis or distress as proof of deception
  • Treating access as proof of action
  • Treating a confident institutional record as neutral fact
  • Treating one mistaken claim as global unreliability
  • Treating cooperation as loyalty or refusal as guilt
GAME MECHANIC

FALSE-NEGATIVE RISKS

Ways uncertainty can become permission to ignore harm

  • Dismissing a valid observation because the interpretation is unsupported
  • Ignoring institutional incentives that shape the record
  • Failing to investigate reversible medical or environmental causes
  • Using uncertainty as permission to abandon a person
GAME MECHANIC

CLAIM SEPARATION

Do not let one layer impersonate another

  1. Direct observation
  2. Physical or digital evidence
  3. Witness interpretation
  4. Institutional interpretation
  5. Clinical education—not diagnosis
  6. Operational hypothesis
  7. Player inference
  8. Canonical fictional revelation
GAME MECHANIC

REPAIR QUESTIONS

What the case owes after the finding

  • Who was harmed by the investigation process itself?
  • What information, choice, work, housing, care, or relationship must be restored?
  • Which conclusion should remain provisional?
  • Who can contest or correct the record?