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GAME MECHANIC

ANALYTICAL FOUNDATIONS // PLAYER PROTOCOL

Competing Hypotheses

Construct multiple non-trivial explanations and identify evidence that can discriminate among them.

OBJECTIVEReplace single-story certainty with a testable hypothesis set.
GAME MECHANIC

Operational sequence

  1. Write at least three plausible hypotheses before requesting more evidence.
  2. State what each hypothesis predicts and what it fails to explain.
  3. Identify assumptions that are unique to each explanation.
  4. Collect the evidence with the greatest discriminatory value.
  5. Update confidence in public rather than deleting the losing theory.

Failure states

  • One favored theory plus two absurd straw alternatives
  • Adding complexity only to rescue the preferred theory
  • Treating plausibility as probability
  • Assuming mixed causes are impossible