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REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

INTERNATIONAL EVENT LITERACY

Scenario Assumption Ledgers and Dependency Maps

How to separate a fictional branch into explicit premises, enabling conditions, source relationships, actors, indicators, countervailing forces, and review states.

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LEVEL 1

ORIENTATION

Why this matters

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

One-sentence brief

A scenario can appear inevitable when its dependencies remain hidden. An assumption ledger makes every necessary condition inspectable and correctable.

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Three key points

  1. A scenario assumption is an authored dependency, not an observed fact or forecast.
  2. Disconfirming evidence and alternative explanations must be visible before a branch is reused.
  3. Retirement, correction, and reopening are evidence-governance states rather than hidden editorial actions.
LEVEL 2

WORKING BRIEF

Evidence, context, and limits

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

One track, many assumptions

A scenario title compresses multiple premises: baseline conditions, a trigger, actor capacity, institutional response, timing, measurement, and consequence transmission. Record them separately rather than treating the title as one verified proposition.

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Map necessary and supporting conditions

A dependency map distinguishes what must be true, what merely increases plausibility, what can interrupt the branch, and what is only source-authored narrative scaffolding.

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Bind each assumption to evidence state

A source relationship, premise review, probability calibration, indicator review, consequence validation, currentness review, assignment, and disposition remain separate fields.

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Include stabilizing forces

Diplomacy, adaptation, regulation, defensive controls, resource substitution, community resilience, legal remedy, and ordinary institutional learning can prevent or reshape a branch.

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Use stable identifiers

SAR, SER, BAS, track, and scenario IDs let a correction propagate without rewriting source bytes or losing earlier states.

LEVEL 3

COMPLETE DOSSIER

Limitations, game links, and review context

DISPUTED / MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS

Known limitations and gaps

  • The source workbook is preserved but not authenticated as an institutional forecast or intelligence product.
  • No scenario premise, probability sequence, warning indicator, consequence path, causal dependency, or retirement decision is independently verified by WIP.32.
  • The assumption docket records no reviewer identity, assignment, conflict declaration, evidence review, specialist disposition, publication approval, production approval, activation, or tuning authority.
  • The public interfaces provide no private-person monitoring, target selection, cyber operation, surveillance, casualty optimization, protected-trait scoring, or individualized persuasion capability.
  • The fixed workbench findings are planning prompts and are not accessibility certification, legal advice, forecast skill, specialist approval, or operational authorization.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Decision matrix

Scenario assumption treatment matrix
Review object Acceptable treatment Prohibited implication
Premise Record as a bounded source-authored proposition with review state. Treat the scenario title as verified history or forecast.
Dependency Classify as necessary, supporting, or interruptible. Hide the condition inside narrative prose.
Countervailing force Model as a possible branch interruption. Assume institutions and communities do nothing.
Identifier Bind changes to stable track and sidecar IDs. Silently rewrite prior evidence states.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Publication audit checklist

Decomposition

Are baseline, trigger, actor, timing, indicator, and consequence assumptions separated?

Pass condition: Each can be reviewed independently.

Interruptions

Are stabilizing and countervailing forces named?

Pass condition: At least one branch-interruption class is visible.

Evidence state

Does each assumption preserve its open review status?

Pass condition: No assumption is upgraded by interface structure.

Correction

Can changes propagate through stable IDs?

Pass condition: The dependency inventory names all public and protected routes.

LEVEL 4

RESEARCH EDITION

Sources, methods, and stable links

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE

Linked reports

REAL-WORLD VERIFIED

Method and corrections

This page follows the public method for provenance, confidence, source independence, alternative accounts, limitations, review state, and visible correction.

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Related learning

International Event LiteracyDisconfirming Evidence, Alternative Explanations, and Branch RetirementA correction-ready method for actively looking for evidence that weakens a fictional branch, comparing alternative explanations, and retiring stale or contradicted assumptions.International Event LiteracyScenario Evidence Lineage and Baseline SourcesHow to trace each fictional scenario family to one supplied source start point without treating that source as endorsement, corroboration, calibration, or prediction.International Event LiteracyScenario Expiration, Correction, and ReopeningHow to expire stale baselines, correct sidecar records, preserve source bytes, retest dependent routes, and reopen a scenario track when evidence changes.International Event LiteracyScenario-Track Review and Claim-Specific VerificationA proposition-level review model for separating fictional premise, source relevance, probability, warning indicators, consequences, currentness, and correction triggers. Learning pathScenario Assumption Review and RetirementMove from fictional track and baseline source to explicit assumptions, disconfirming questions, warning-indicator validity, branch retirement, correction, and bounded specialist-review preparation.