REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
One-sentence brief
The most important simulation control is not visual complexity; it is the truth boundary separating evidence from invented conditions.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
SIMULATION LITERACY
Historical Replay, Counterfactual Branching, and Projection
A simulation-literacy guide to replaying a source record, changing one condition, and exploring second-order questions without pretending to forecast.
LEVEL 1
ORIENTATION
Why this matters
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Three key points
- Replay restates the source-bounded record without changing it.
- A counterfactual changes one condition and remains fictional.
- A projection asks follow-on questions without assigning probability or claiming prediction.
LEVEL 2
WORKING BRIEF
Evidence, context, and limits
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Historical replay
Replay shows the exact source-bounded fields: date, record type, evidence label, description, significance, location, actors, status, coordinate precision, and source note.
FICTIONAL ROGUEINTELLIGENCE.ORG
One changed condition
The user selects one fixed condition such as earlier warning, reduced escalation, or stronger institutional coordination. The branch does not infer hidden motives or real operational details.
FICTIONAL ROGUEINTELLIGENCE.ORG
Second-order questions
The projection lists broad questions about public information, institutional capacity, rights, recovery, and uncertainty. It does not output likelihood, ranking, casualty estimates, or target recommendations.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Determinism is not truth
The same input yields the same text so results are inspectable. Deterministic output is still authored fiction and does not become evidence through repeatability.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Why ongoing claims cannot branch
A contemporary claim is already uncertain in the real-world baseline. Adding alternate outcomes would compound uncertainty and invite false authority, so WIP.29 keeps those rows review-only.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Return to evidence
Every branch links back to the unchanged source record and related literacy pages. A reader can always identify which text came from the source and which text was invented.
LEVEL 3
COMPLETE DOSSIER
Limitations, game links, and review context
DISPUTED / MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS
Known limitations and gaps
- The branch model is deliberately simple.
- It does not test causal validity.
- It does not model real populations or decision-makers.
- It does not use live data or a forecasting model.
- It creates no publication, operational, specialist, production, or tuning authority.
FICTIONAL ROGUEINTELLIGENCE.ORG
Bounded historical replay and what-if practice
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Glossary cross-reference
Terms are defined for this site’s evidence method, not as universal legal or clinical definitions.
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Decision matrix
| State | What the site may say | What it must not imply |
|---|---|---|
| Historical dataset claim | The supplied ledger represents the row as historical. | Independent verification, complete causation, or universal agreement. |
| Annual analytic series | A recurring theme is summarized for one year. | That the row is one isolated incident. |
| Contemporary or ongoing claim | The source records an unresolved or current claim. | That history has closed or the claim is settled. |
| Fictional what-if | One named condition is changed for educational comparison. | That the branch happened or will happen. |
| Illustrative projection | Possible second-order questions are shown. | A probability, prediction, forecast, or policy recommendation. |
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Publication audit checklist
State label
Is the evidence state visible before the title or claim?
Pass condition: Historical, annual, contemporary, fictional, and projection states are named exactly.
Boundary placement
Does fiction begin only after a visible boundary?
Pass condition: No scenario text appears inside the historical record block.
Source status
Are source URLs described as starting points?
Pass condition: No link count is treated as independent corroboration.
Currentness
Are ongoing claims kept out of settled-history language?
Pass condition: The contemporary label and review cutoff remain visible.
Operational safety
Does the branch avoid targeting, cyber procedure, casualty optimization, and predictive certainty?
Pass condition: Output remains fixed, educational, non-identifying, and non-operational.
LEVEL 4
RESEARCH EDITION
Sources, methods, and stable links
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
Linked reports
REAL-WORLD VERIFIED
Method and corrections
This page follows the public method for provenance, confidence, source independence, alternative accounts, limitations, review state, and visible correction.
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