Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety

SOURCE LINEAGE AND CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW

Scenario evidence docket

Inspect how nineteen baseline URLs connect to 300 fictional scenario tracks. The docket records what each relationship can support, what remains unreviewed, and which evidence would be required before any premise, probability sequence, warning indicator, or consequence path could be strengthened.

Browse track reviews Open the scenario register Open the assumption docket

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE Editorial synthesis or explanation derived from sources and explicitly open to correction.

Confidence: Source relationship recorded; substantive review open
Sources: 19
Independent corroboration: 0
Date range: 2027–2036 fictional scenario register
Review: All 300 track records are ready for claim-specific review and remain open, unassigned, and without specialist disposition

HISTORICAL RECORD ENDS AT 2026-07-24 Every track reviewed below belongs to the workbook’s future-facing fictional register.

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Baseline sources: 19
Track reviews: 300
Annual rows linked: 3,000
Verified premises: 0
Calibrated sequences: 0
Validated consequences: 0
Recorded reviewers: 0
Specialist dispositions: 0

Baseline source Scenario category Primary focus Clear filters

21 matching track review records. Filters organize existing records; they do not score, rank, verify, or predict them.

Uniform open state

Premise: not reviewed
Probability: not calibrated
Indicators: not reviewed
Consequences: not validated
Assignment: open and unassigned

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-G004Track G004Source BAS-001

Military coup in a strategically located state overturns civilian rule

Governance / political · Governance/Political · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M081Track M081Source BAS-001

Central Sahel: Localized clash expands beyond the established line

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M082Track M082Source BAS-001

Central Sahel: Air or maritime interception causes casualties

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M083Track M083Source BAS-001

Central Sahel: Proxy or partner-force action triggers direct retaliation

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M084Track M084Source BAS-001

Central Sahel: Coercive blockade, siege or large-scale mobilization

Military · Military · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M085Track M085Source BAS-001

Central Sahel: Command-and-control error or accidental strike

Military · Military · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M086Track M086Source BAS-001

DRC–Rwanda and Great Lakes: Localized clash expands beyond the established line

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M087Track M087Source BAS-001

DRC–Rwanda and Great Lakes: Air or maritime interception causes casualties

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M088Track M088Source BAS-001

DRC–Rwanda and Great Lakes: Proxy or partner-force action triggers direct retaliation

Military · Military · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M089Track M089Source BAS-001

DRC–Rwanda and Great Lakes: Coercive blockade, siege or large-scale mobilization

Military · Military · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M090Track M090Source BAS-001

DRC–Rwanda and Great Lakes: Command-and-control error or accidental strike

Military · Military · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T011Track T011Source BAS-001

Central and Eastern Europe: Lone-actor mass-casualty attack at a public gathering or transit setting

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T012Track T012Source BAS-001

Central and Eastern Europe: Ideologically motivated attack on a religious or minority community

Terrorism / lone actor · Terrorism / lone actor · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T013Track T013Source BAS-001

Central and Eastern Europe: Assassination attempt against a political or diplomatic figure

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor / political violence · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T014Track T014Source BAS-001

Central and Eastern Europe: Low-complexity disruption at a major event or essential public service

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor / terrorism · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T015Track T015Source BAS-001

Central and Eastern Europe: Networked extremist cell attacks tourists, transport or energy activity

Terrorism / lone actor · Terrorism · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T036Track T036Source BAS-001

Sahel and West Africa: Lone-actor mass-casualty attack at a public gathering or transit setting

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T037Track T037Source BAS-001

Sahel and West Africa: Ideologically motivated attack on a religious or minority community

Terrorism / lone actor · Terrorism / lone actor · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T038Track T038Source BAS-001

Sahel and West Africa: Assassination attempt against a political or diplomatic figure

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor / political violence · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T039Track T039Source BAS-001

Sahel and West Africa: Low-complexity disruption at a major event or essential public service

Terrorism / lone actor · Lone-actor / terrorism · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-T040Track T040Source BAS-001

Sahel and West Africa: Networked extremist cell attacks tourists, transport or energy activity

Terrorism / lone actor · Terrorism · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE Editorial synthesis or explanation derived from sources and explicitly open to correction.

Confidence: Relationship recorded; substantive claims open
Sources: 1
Independent corroboration: 0
Date range: 2027–2036 fictional track
Review: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-G004 · TRACK G004 · SOURCE BAS-001

Military coup in a strategically located state overturns civilian rule

This sidecar binds one ten-year fictional scenario family to the exact source URL and source note supplied in the workbook. It does not upgrade that relationship into verification, calibration, forecast, or operational authority.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Assignment state: OPEN_UNASSIGNED
Premise verification: NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration: NOT PERFORMED
Warning-indicator review: NOT REVIEWED
Consequence validation: NOT PERFORMED
Currentness review: NOT REVIEWED
Independent origins: 0
Reviewer identity: Not supplied
Specialist disposition: Not supplied
Operational use: Not allowed
Review fingerprint: 96b7bd2fd84bfd4e4c8ebd7bbd8195016659443eb3515cebd1892d6835becc7d

What is supported now

The exact workbook links this track to the named source URL and note.
All ten annual rows belong to one source-authored scenario lineage.
The track can be addressed by stable review ID, track ID, scenario ID, source ID, and source row.

What is not supported now

That the fictional scenario will occur.
That the annual probability values are calibrated, independent, or additive.
That warning indicators prove occurrence, attribution, intent, or effect.
That consequence paths are predictions or recommendations.
Any monitoring, target selection, cyber operation, surveillance, publication, activation, production, or tuning authority.

Required review domains

governance
public law
rights and remedy
regional context

Correction and reopening triggers

The source URL, source note, or source edition changes.
Independent evidence supports, narrows, contradicts, or supersedes a premise.
A probability, warning indicator, consequence, coordinate, or category is revised.
A public route loses a visible fiction, estimate, projection, or source-boundary label.

Questions an accountable review must answer

Does the baseline source directly support the domain condition used by this track?
Which premise elements are supported, unsupported, or contradicted by independent origins?
What evidence would be required to calibrate or replace the source-authored probability sequence?
Which warning indicators are measurable without monitoring private people or protected groups?
Which consequence claims require legal, historical, technical, humanitarian, accessibility, or affected-community review?
What change, expiration, or counterevidence should reopen the track?

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

BAS-001 · acleddata.com

ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2026; used for conflict-risk baselines and warning indicators. The scenario itself is not an ACLED prediction.

Source-content review: NOT INDEPENDENTLY REVIEWED IN WIP.31
Specific-scenario support: NOT ESTABLISHED
Probability calibration: NOT PERFORMED
Consequence validation: NOT PERFORMED
Tracks sharing this source lineage: 21
Annual rows sharing this source lineage: 210

Open the workbook’s baseline source

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Ten annual rows in this source-authored track

These rows are one scenario lineage repeated across ten years. They are not ten independent sources and do not form a calibrated time-series forecast.

Annualized fictional rows for track G004
Year	Scenario ID	Source row	Source estimate	Band	Magnitude	Open scenario
2027	`2027-S190`	191	17.8%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2028	`2028-S180`	481	19.0%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2029	`2029-S181`	782	19.1%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2030	`2030-S186`	1087	18.4%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2031	`2031-S192`	1393	19.2%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2032	`2032-S207`	1708	17.6%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2033	`2033-S216`	2017	17.1%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2034	`2034-S206`	2307	17.9%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2035	`2035-S196`	2597	20.1%	Moderate	4/5	View row
2036	`2036-S195`	2896	19.9%	Moderate	4/5	View row

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Assumption, disconfirmation, and retirement sidecar

SAR-G004 keeps premise dependencies, alternative explanations, indicator validity, consequence interruptions, retirement triggers, and reopening conditions separate from this source-lineage record.

Open the selected assumption record

SOURCE-ORIGIN MAP

Nineteen baseline relationships

Each source record groups tracks that point to the same supplied URL. Reuse inside the workbook does not create independent corroboration.

BAS-001 acleddata.com21 tracks · 210 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2026; used for conflict-risk baselines and warning indicators. The scenario itself is not an ACLED prediction.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-002 apps.who.int3 tracks · 30 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WHO/Global Preparedness Monitoring Board 2026 materials; used for pandemic-preparedness and outbreak-risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-003 oecd.ai10 tracks · 100 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

OECD AI Policy Observatory; used for AI incidents, governance and frontier-model risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-004 wmo.int8 tracks · 80 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WMO State of the Global Climate 2025; used for climate-hazard baselines. Specific future disasters are hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-005 www.act.nato.int16 tracks · 160 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

NATO Allied Command Transformation strategic-foresight material; used for drivers of future security environments and scenario framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-006 www.cisa.gov15 tracks · 150 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

CISA cybersecurity advisories; used for critical-infrastructure threat patterns. No exploit steps, vulnerabilities or target-level details are included.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-007 www.crisisgroup.org36 tracks · 360 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

International Crisis Group, 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026; used to identify active or fragile conflict systems. Future event details are hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-008 www.enisa.europa.eu20 tracks · 200 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ENISA publications and critical-sector assessments; used for cyber-resilience and supply-chain risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-009 www.iaea.org6 tracks · 60 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IAEA public material; used for nuclear safeguards, security and safety framing. No sensitive facility details are included.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-010 www.iea.org18 tracks · 180 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IEA World Energy Outlook 2025; used for energy-security, electricity and critical-mineral scenario framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-011 www.imf.org11 tracks · 110 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026; used for macroeconomic and financial-system baselines. Scenario outcomes are analytical estimates.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-012 www.odni.gov86 tracks · 860 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment; used for current threat vectors and regional baselines. The scenario and probability are independently constructed.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-013 www.sipri.org8 tracks · 80 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SIPRI Yearbook 2026 summary; used for conflict, armament, nuclear and escalation-risk baselines. The scenario is hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-014 www.un.org11 tracks · 110 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UN Office of Counter-Terrorism material; used for high-level terrorism trends and prevention framing. Operational attack details are intentionally excluded.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-015 www.un.org4 tracks · 40 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

United Nations crisis and emergency-response material; used for displacement, humanitarian and governance consequence framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-016 www.unodc.org5 tracks · 50 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UNODC transnational organized-crime research; used for illicit-network, corruption and cross-border crime scenarios.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-017 www.unoosa.org4 tracks · 40 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UN Office for Outer Space Affairs sustainability guidance; used for orbital congestion, debris and space-governance scenarios.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-018 www.weforum.org15 tracks · 150 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WEF Global Risks Report 2026; used as a broad horizon-scanning baseline. The row is a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast from the source.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

BAS-019 www.who.int3 tracks · 30 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WHO 2026 health-emergency preparedness framework; used for health-system consequence and resilience assumptions.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

LEARN THE METHOD

Evidence lineage and baseline sources

Learn why a relevant source may be a useful starting point without verifying a specific fictional scenario.

PLAN REVIEW

Claim-specific verification

Separate premise review, probability calibration, warning-indicator testing, consequence review, and currentness.

Open the review guide

KEEP IT CORRECTABLE

Expiration and reopening

Use stable IDs, visible corrections, expiration checks, counterevidence, and reopening triggers instead of silent certainty drift.

Open the correction guide