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SOURCE LINEAGE AND CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW

Scenario evidence docket

Inspect how nineteen baseline URLs connect to 300 fictional scenario tracks. The docket records what each relationship can support, what remains unreviewed, and which evidence would be required before any premise, probability sequence, warning indicator, or consequence path could be strengthened.

Browse track reviews Open the scenario register Open the assumption docket
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE Editorial synthesis or explanation derived from sources and explicitly open to correction.
Confidence
Source relationship recorded; substantive review open
Sources
19
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036 fictional scenario register
Review
All 300 track records are ready for claim-specific review and remain open, unassigned, and without specialist disposition

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

What this docket does not claim

A preserved URL is not authentication, independent corroboration, endorsement, probability calibration, prediction, specialist approval, publication authority, or operational permission. No reviewer identity or disposition is recorded. Warning indicators remain review prompts and cannot be used to monitor private people, select targets, or infer protected traits.

Baseline sources
19
Track reviews
300
Annual rows linked
3,000
Verified premises
0
Calibrated sequences
0
Validated consequences
0
Recorded reviewers
0
Specialist dispositions
0

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-CH004Track CH004Source BAS-004

Major transboundary river flood displaces millions

Climate / health · Climate/Health/Disaster · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-CH007Track CH007Source BAS-015

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone

Climate / health · Climate/Health/Disaster · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-E001Track E001Source BAS-011

Synchronized global slowdown becomes a deep recession

Economic / energy · Economic/Energy · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-E004Track E004Source BAS-011

Major economy imposes emergency capital controls

Economic / energy · Economic/Energy · Continental

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-G001Track G001Source BAS-018

Constitutional crisis paralyzes a major democracy

Governance / political · Governance/Political · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-W003Track W003Source BAS-009

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis

Nuclear / WMD · Nuclear/WMD · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-W017Track W017Source BAS-013

Global strategic arms-control framework breaks down

Nuclear / WMD · Nuclear/WMD · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-W019Track W019Source BAS-012

New state begins overt nuclear-weapons hedging

Nuclear / WMD · Nuclear/WMD · Global

READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW · OPEN_UNASSIGNED · NOT REVIEWED premise · NOT PERFORMED probability
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE Editorial synthesis or explanation derived from sources and explicitly open to correction.
Confidence
Relationship recorded; substantive claims open
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036 fictional track
Review
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SER-M070 · TRACK M070 · SOURCE BAS-007

Armenia–Azerbaijan Border: Command-and-control error or accidental strike

This sidecar binds one ten-year fictional scenario family to the exact source URL and source note supplied in the workbook. It does not upgrade that relationship into verification, calibration, forecast, or operational authority.

Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Warning-indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Consequence validation
NOT PERFORMED
Currentness review
NOT REVIEWED
Independent origins
0
Reviewer identity
Not supplied
Specialist disposition
Not supplied
Operational use
Not allowed
Review fingerprint
abd3d010cf712b9d80b99ae114df68868090aa5283fcaf579c2ca34e7b12d69d

What is supported now

  • The exact workbook links this track to the named source URL and note.
  • All ten annual rows belong to one source-authored scenario lineage.
  • The track can be addressed by stable review ID, track ID, scenario ID, source ID, and source row.

What is not supported now

  • That the fictional scenario will occur.
  • That the annual probability values are calibrated, independent, or additive.
  • That warning indicators prove occurrence, attribution, intent, or effect.
  • That consequence paths are predictions or recommendations.
  • Any monitoring, target selection, cyber operation, surveillance, publication, activation, production, or tuning authority.

Required review domains

  • regional security
  • international humanitarian law
  • civilian-harm review
  • regional history

Correction and reopening triggers

  • The source URL, source note, or source edition changes.
  • Independent evidence supports, narrows, contradicts, or supersedes a premise.
  • A probability, warning indicator, consequence, coordinate, or category is revised.
  • A public route loses a visible fiction, estimate, projection, or source-boundary label.

Questions an accountable review must answer

  1. Does the baseline source directly support the domain condition used by this track?
  2. Which premise elements are supported, unsupported, or contradicted by independent origins?
  3. What evidence would be required to calibrate or replace the source-authored probability sequence?
  4. Which warning indicators are measurable without monitoring private people or protected groups?
  5. Which consequence claims require legal, historical, technical, humanitarian, accessibility, or affected-community review?
  6. What change, expiration, or counterevidence should reopen the track?

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

BAS-007 · www.crisisgroup.org

International Crisis Group, 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026; used to identify active or fragile conflict systems. Future event details are hypothetical.

Source-content review
NOT INDEPENDENTLY REVIEWED IN WIP.31
Specific-scenario support
NOT ESTABLISHED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Consequence validation
NOT PERFORMED
Tracks sharing this source lineage
36
Annual rows sharing this source lineage
360
Open the workbook’s baseline source

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Ten annual rows in this source-authored track

These rows are one scenario lineage repeated across ten years. They are not ten independent sources and do not form a calibrated time-series forecast.

Annualized fictional rows for track M070
YearScenario IDSource rowSource estimateBandMagnitudeOpen scenario
2027 2027-S283 284 5.6% Low 5/5 View row
2028 2028-S273 574 7.2% Low 5/5 View row
2029 2029-S274 875 7.7% Low 5/5 View row
2030 2030-S268 1169 8.7% Low 5/5 View row
2031 2031-S282 1483 7.1% Low 5/5 View row
2032 2032-S271 1772 8.9% Low 5/5 View row
2033 2033-S272 2073 9.1% Low 5/5 View row
2034 2034-S282 2383 7.9% Low 5/5 View row
2035 2035-S276 2677 9.1% Low 5/5 View row
2036 2036-S287 2988 7.2% Low 5/5 View row

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

SAR-M070 keeps premise dependencies, alternative explanations, indicator validity, consequence interruptions, retirement triggers, and reopening conditions separate from this source-lineage record.

Open the selected assumption record
Review and safety boundary

This record authorizes no monitoring, surveillance, target selection, cyber operation, private-person identification, protected-trait inference, casualty optimization, individualized persuasion, publication, activation, production, or tuning.

SOURCE-ORIGIN MAP

Nineteen baseline relationships

Each source record groups tracks that point to the same supplied URL. Reuse inside the workbook does not create independent corroboration.

BAS-001 acleddata.com21 tracks · 210 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2026; used for conflict-risk baselines and warning indicators. The scenario itself is not an ACLED prediction.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-002 apps.who.int3 tracks · 30 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WHO/Global Preparedness Monitoring Board 2026 materials; used for pandemic-preparedness and outbreak-risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-003 oecd.ai10 tracks · 100 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

OECD AI Policy Observatory; used for AI incidents, governance and frontier-model risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-004 wmo.int8 tracks · 80 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WMO State of the Global Climate 2025; used for climate-hazard baselines. Specific future disasters are hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-005 www.act.nato.int16 tracks · 160 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

NATO Allied Command Transformation strategic-foresight material; used for drivers of future security environments and scenario framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-006 www.cisa.gov15 tracks · 150 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

CISA cybersecurity advisories; used for critical-infrastructure threat patterns. No exploit steps, vulnerabilities or target-level details are included.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-007 www.crisisgroup.org36 tracks · 360 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

International Crisis Group, 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026; used to identify active or fragile conflict systems. Future event details are hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-008 www.enisa.europa.eu20 tracks · 200 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ENISA publications and critical-sector assessments; used for cyber-resilience and supply-chain risk framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-009 www.iaea.org6 tracks · 60 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IAEA public material; used for nuclear safeguards, security and safety framing. No sensitive facility details are included.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-010 www.iea.org18 tracks · 180 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IEA World Energy Outlook 2025; used for energy-security, electricity and critical-mineral scenario framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-011 www.imf.org11 tracks · 110 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026; used for macroeconomic and financial-system baselines. Scenario outcomes are analytical estimates.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-012 www.odni.gov86 tracks · 860 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment; used for current threat vectors and regional baselines. The scenario and probability are independently constructed.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-013 www.sipri.org8 tracks · 80 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

SIPRI Yearbook 2026 summary; used for conflict, armament, nuclear and escalation-risk baselines. The scenario is hypothetical.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-014 www.un.org11 tracks · 110 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UN Office of Counter-Terrorism material; used for high-level terrorism trends and prevention framing. Operational attack details are intentionally excluded.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-015 www.un.org4 tracks · 40 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

United Nations crisis and emergency-response material; used for displacement, humanitarian and governance consequence framing.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-016 www.unodc.org5 tracks · 50 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UNODC transnational organized-crime research; used for illicit-network, corruption and cross-border crime scenarios.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-017 www.unoosa.org4 tracks · 40 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

UN Office for Outer Space Affairs sustainability guidance; used for orbital congestion, debris and space-governance scenarios.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-018 www.weforum.org15 tracks · 150 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WEF Global Risks Report 2026; used as a broad horizon-scanning baseline. The row is a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast from the source.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source
BAS-019 www.who.int3 tracks · 30 rows

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

WHO 2026 health-emergency preparedness framework; used for health-system consequence and resilience assumptions.

Review state: READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC SOURCE REVIEW

Currentness trigger: Re-review when the linked publication changes, is superseded, becomes unavailable, or a newer edition changes the relevant baseline.

Open source Filter to this source

LEARN THE METHOD

Evidence lineage and baseline sources

Learn why a relevant source may be a useful starting point without verifying a specific fictional scenario.

Open the guide

PLAN REVIEW

Claim-specific verification

Separate premise review, probability calibration, warning-indicator testing, consequence review, and currentness.

Open the review guide

KEEP IT CORRECTABLE

Expiration and reopening

Use stable IDs, visible corrections, expiration checks, counterevidence, and reopening triggers instead of silent certainty drift.

Open the correction guide