Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety

LEARNING PATH // READERS, EDUCATORS, SCENARIO PLANNERS, VISUALIZATION DESIGNERS, EDITORS, AND REVIEWERS

From Historical Record to Future Scenario Without False Prediction

Move from the 1999–2026 source ledger into the 2027–2036 fictional register while preserving cutoffs, track identity, non-additive numerical limits, source baselines, uncertainty, and correction paths.

Estimated total: 94 minutes

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE Editorial synthesis or explanation derived from sources and explicitly open to correction.
Confidence
Moderate
Review
Editorial curation

Source boundary

This learning path is repository-authored curation of public educational routes. It records no participant testing, accepts no files or free text, sends no choices to a remote service, and grants no source authentication, specialist approval, accessibility certification, publication authority, activation authority, production approval, or tuning authority.

Current review status: WIP.30 source-bounded synthesis — baseline-source, probability, consequence, historical, legal, technical, accessibility, cultural, affected-community, and specialist review pending

REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
04

Scenario Families, Annualization, and Track Identifiers

How stable track IDs connect ten annualized versions of one fictional scenario family without turning repetition into independent evidence.

/international/event-literacy/scenario-families-annualization-and-track-identifiers
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
05

Probability Bands, Consequence Magnitude, and Non-Additivity

Interpret source-authored annual probability, consequence magnitude, weighted score, and planning priority without converting them into calibrated forecasts or site rankings.

/international/event-literacy/probability-bands-consequence-magnitude-and-non-additivity
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
06

Warning Indicators, Uncertainty, and Source Baselines

Use precursor fields and baseline sources as review prompts while preventing indicators, citations, or confidence labels from becoming proof that a fictional scenario is occurring.

/international/event-literacy/warning-indicators-uncertainty-and-source-baselines
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
07

Historical Ledgers, Scenario Registers, and Visible Boundaries

A simulation-literacy standard for keeping source-bounded history, contemporary claims, fictional scenarios, numerical assumptions, and illustrative projections in distinct interface states.

/simulation-literacy/historical-ledgers-scenario-registers-and-visible-boundaries
REAL-WORLD INTERPRETIVE
08

Scenarios

Continue this path in the connected public section.

/simulations/world-events/scenarios