WORLD EVENT LITERACY
A field guide to the workbook’s 300 annualized scenario families, their visible fiction labels, source baselines, uncertainties, and conditional consequence paths.
ORIENTATION
A large table can look authoritative even when it is fictional. Readers need a repeatable way to identify where history stops, what each row represents, and what the numbers do not prove.
WORKING BRIEF
The historical ledger covers 1999 through the supplied current-information baseline of 2026-07-24. The future register begins only after an explicit cutoff banner. A future row never inherits historical status merely because it appears in the same workbook.
A row combines a stable scenario ID, track ID, illustrative window, category, broad geography, source-authored probability band, consequence magnitude, planning priority, premise, consequences, actors, warning indicators, uncertainty, source note, and safety note.
The workbook annualizes the same 300 scenario families across ten years. Repetition is intentional. It supports comparison of source-authored estimates and consequence framing; it does not represent 3,000 independent forecasts.
Every scenario card and detail view repeats FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Consequences are introduced only after a second boundary labeled ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION.
The workbook source URL is a baseline starting point. Before publication or real-world use, a reviewer must check currentness, source independence, definitions, assumptions, contrary evidence, regional context, and whether the scenario has changed or become moot.
The public route supports source literacy, uncertainty review, and broad preparedness questions. It does not provide tactical targeting, exploitation, evasion, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authority for action.
COMPLETE DOSSIER
Terms are defined for this site’s evidence method, not as universal legal or clinical definitions.
| Question | Acceptable treatment | Prohibited implication |
|---|---|---|
| Time boundary | Show the 2026-07-24 cutoff before future material. | That future rows are historical facts. |
| Row status | Call each row a fictional scenario. | That repetition or detail makes it a forecast. |
| Source status | Treat the URL as a baseline starting point. | That a source endorses the workbook’s scenario or probability. |
| Use | Support education and broad planning review. | Operational direction or automatic decision authority. |
Is the historical cutoff visible before any future row?
Pass condition: The page names 2026-07-24 and states that future material begins afterward.
Is every future row visibly fictional?
Pass condition: The exact scenario label appears on cards and selected records.
Are estimates described as uncalibrated and non-additive?
Pass condition: No probability, score, or priority is presented as objective truth.
Does the page mark consequence paths as illustrative?
Pass condition: The projection label appears before every consequence sequence.
Are coordinates and warnings kept non-operational?
Pass condition: The page says coordinates are broad centroids and indicators are not targeting instructions.
RESEARCH EDITION
This page follows the public method for provenance, confidence, source independence, alternative accounts, limitations, review state, and visible correction.
CONTINUE