Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
PsychologicalWar.orgPeople before labels.

FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S122Track W003Q2 2029

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2029 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 15.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S259Track CH007Q3–Q4 2029

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2029 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 9.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Low-moderate
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q2 2029
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 684 · TRACK T045

East Africa and the Horn: Networked extremist cell attacks tourists, transport or energy activity — 2029 outlook

In 2029, the modeled trigger or precursor is: Against a background of persistent insurgency, porous borders, urban targets and regional military operations, a small organized cell linked ideologically or materially to a regional extremist movement conducts a coordinated attack. The row provides no tactical sequencing, weapons guidance or security-bypass detail; it focuses on regional and economic consequences. The event becomes strategically significant because violence can affect maritime security, aviation, tourism, aid operations and regional political stability. Near-term risk is driven by online mobilization, grievance amplification and the continued appeal of low-complexity attacks. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 18.9% (Moderate), with consequence magnitude 5/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2029-S083
Track ID
T045
Illustrative window
Q2 2029
Category
Terrorism / lone actor
Impact scope
Continental
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
Nairobi, Mogadishu and regional transport corridors · Somalia / Kenya / Ethiopia / Tanzania / Uganda
Coordinate precision
Representative city centroid; not a target coordinate
Confidence label
Low-moderate
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
18.9%
Band
Moderate
Magnitude
5/5
Weighted score
18.9/100
Planning priority
5/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

Against a background of persistent insurgency, porous borders, urban targets and regional military operations, a small organized cell linked ideologically or materially to a regional extremist movement conducts a coordinated attack.

Named actor classes

al-Shabaab and other extremist networks; lone offenders; national security services; regional forces

Warning indicators

communications among known extremists; financing or travel anomalies; unexplained safe-house activity; regional propaganda claiming local capacity; multiple credible warnings

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

the depth of external direction, access to local support and whether aggressive response measures reduce or expand recruitment

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2029: National authorities conduct coordinated operations, raise border and transport security and issue travel or business warnings. Regional effects include emergency response, business closures and heightened protection of transport and diplomatic sites.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2030–2032: counterterrorism campaigns disrupt networks but may also intensify local grievances if civilian protection and due process are weak Over one to three years, regional forces and intelligence services adjust deployments while governments face pressure over governance and civilian protection.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2033–2039: tourism, transport and investment recover only if authorities demonstrate durable control and credible governance; otherwise the attack becomes a template for recurring coercion Over four to ten years, the threat either regionalizes further or contracts as local governance and financial disruption improve.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment; used for current threat vectors and regional baselines. The scenario and probability are independently constructed.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-T045
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

Open the claim-specific review docket

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-T045
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

High-level prevention and consequence scenario; no target, tactical sequence, weapon construction or security-bypass detail is included. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: T045

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track T045
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S095 16.8% Moderate 5/5 16.8 5/5 Low-moderate
2028 2028-S097 17.4% Moderate 5/5 17.4 5/5 Low-moderate
2029 2029-S083 18.9% Moderate 5/5 18.9 5/5 Low-moderate
2030 2030-S094 18.6% Moderate 5/5 18.6 5/5 Low-moderate
2031 2031-S098 19.0% Moderate 5/5 19.0 5/5 Low-moderate
2032 2032-S104 17.8% Moderate 5/5 17.8 5/5 Low-moderate
2033 2033-S105 18.4% Moderate 5/5 18.4 5/5 Low-moderate
2034 2034-S108 18.7% Moderate 5/5 18.7 5/5 Low-moderate
2035 2035-S101 19.2% Moderate 5/5 19.2 5/5 Low-moderate
2036 2036-S104 19.3% Moderate 5/5 19.3 5/5 Low-moderate

READ THE DATA

Scenario-register literacy

Learn why repeated annual rows are intentional, why probability bands do not add, and why warning indicators are not event confirmation.

Open the guide

CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

Review the rules that prevent the 1999–2026 historical ledger from silently becoming future fact.

Open the boundary guide

RETURN TO HISTORY

1999–2026 event explorer

Browse the unchanged historical and contemporary source records before crossing into fictional material.

Open historical replay