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FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S122Track W003Q2 2029

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2029 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 15.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S259Track CH007Q3–Q4 2029

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2029 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 9.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Moderate
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q3 2029
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 756 · TRACK M083

Central Sahel: Proxy or partner-force action triggers direct retaliation — 2029 outlook

In 2029, the modeled trigger or precursor is: Amid expanding insurgency, military-led governments and weakening regional security cooperation, an armed group, local partner force or deniable unit attacks a politically sensitive site and the sponsor is blamed. Forces linked to Sahelian governments; jihadist groups; local militias; neighboring states; external security partners enter a fast-moving crisis around the Mali–Burkina Faso–Niger tri-border area and regional capitals. The event remains below the threshold of deliberate total war at first, but the combination of mobilization, information warfare and political pressure creates a credible pathway to wider escalation. Its strategic significance comes from West African political stability, migration routes and counterterrorism capacity. Near-term conditions are shaped by unresolved 2026 crises, rapid rearmament and brittle crisis-communication channels. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 23.8% (Moderate), with consequence magnitude 4/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2029-S155
Track ID
M083
Illustrative window
Q3 2029
Category
Military
Impact scope
Continental
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
Liptako-Gourma tri-border area · Mali / Burkina Faso / Niger
Coordinate precision
Tri-border region centroid
Confidence label
Moderate
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
23.8%
Band
Moderate
Magnitude
4/5
Weighted score
19.0/100
Planning priority
4/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

Amid expanding insurgency, military-led governments and weakening regional security cooperation, an armed group, local partner force or deniable unit attacks a politically sensitive site and the sponsor is blamed.

Named actor classes

Sahelian governments; jihadist groups; local militias; neighboring states; external security partners

Warning indicators

unusual weapons transfers; leadership travel; coordinated propaganda; evacuation of foreign personnel; force-protection warnings

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

the sponsor's actual control, the quality of attribution and whether retaliation targets the proxy or the state directly

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2029: The accused sponsor faces retaliatory strikes, sanctions or covert action while proxy forces disperse and civilian areas experience heightened insecurity. Local consequences include civilian killings, displacement, food insecurity and reduced humanitarian access.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2030–2032: Sponsors tighten control over partners or invest in more deniable capabilities; external powers expand intelligence sharing and force protection. Over the following one to three years, regional organizations and external partners would reconsider sanctions, basing and security assistance.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2033–2039: A durable shadow conflict develops, normalizing periodic cross-border strikes and weakening formal sovereignty. Over four to ten years, mining, transport and rural markets would contract as state authority retreats.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

ACLED Conflict Watchlist 2026; used for conflict-risk baselines and warning indicators. The scenario itself is not an ACLED prediction.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-M083
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

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ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-M083
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

Strategic defensive scenario only; no operational target, route, vulnerability or attack instructions are provided. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: M083

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track M083
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S151 22.9% Moderate 4/5 18.3 4/5 Moderate
2028 2028-S151 24.5% Moderate 4/5 19.6 4/5 Moderate
2029 2029-S155 23.8% Moderate 4/5 19.0 4/5 Moderate
2030 2030-S157 23.2% Moderate 4/5 18.6 4/5 Moderate
2031 2031-S175 22.7% Moderate 4/5 18.2 4/5 Moderate
2032 2032-S178 23.3% Moderate 4/5 18.6 4/5 Moderate
2033 2033-S163 25.8% Moderate 4/5 20.6 4/5 Moderate
2034 2034-S172 23.5% Moderate 4/5 18.8 4/5 Moderate
2035 2035-S172 25.6% Moderate 4/5 20.5 4/5 Moderate
2036 2036-S167 27.3% Moderate 4/5 21.8 4/5 Moderate

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Scenario-register literacy

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CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

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1999–2026 event explorer

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