Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
PsychologicalWar.orgPeople before labels.

FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2034-S116Track W003Q3 2034

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2034 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 17.2% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2034-S286Track CH007Q1–Q2 2034

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2034 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 7.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Low
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q1 2034
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 2389 · TRACK W013

Radiological source is stolen and traded through a criminal network — 2034 outlook

In 2034, the modeled trigger or precursor is: authorities discover that a controlled radiological source has been removed from legitimate use and offered through an illicit network. The row does not discuss device construction or concealment. The central risk is public fear, criminal leverage and uncertainty about whether all material has been recovered. By the mid-2030s, larger and more diverse arsenals, weaker treaties and dual-use delivery systems increase ambiguity and the cost of miscalculation. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 8.7% (Low), with consequence magnitude 4/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2034-S288
Track ID
W013
Illustrative window
Q1 2034
Category
Nuclear / WMD
Impact scope
Global
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
Major transnational smuggling corridor · Global
Coordinate precision
Global/transnational scenario; coordinates not applicable
Confidence label
Low
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
8.7%
Band
Low
Magnitude
4/5
Weighted score
7.0/100
Planning priority
3/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

authorities discover that a controlled radiological source has been removed from legitimate use and offered through an illicit network.

Named actor classes

criminal brokers; corrupt insiders; national police; customs agencies; IAEA member states

Warning indicators

missing-source reports; suspicious broker communications; irregular licensing records; customs alerts; unexplained radiation detections

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

material type and quantity, the number of intermediaries and whether the theft is for profit, coercion or terrorism

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2034: Ports, borders and high-risk facilities intensify screening while health and security agencies coordinate recovery.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2035–2037: Source tracking, licensing and disposal programs expand; arrests expose corruption and cross-border enforcement gaps.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2038–2044: International material-accounting standards improve, although black-market narratives may continue to be used for coercion and hoaxes.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

IAEA public material; used for nuclear safeguards, security and safety framing. No sensitive facility details are included.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-W013
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

Open the claim-specific review docket

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-W013
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

Strategic risk-reduction scenario; no sensitive facility layout, weapon design, material handling or attack instructions are included. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: W013

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track W013
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S278 8.3% Low 4/5 6.6 3/5 Low
2028 2028-S287 6.3% Low 4/5 5.0 3/5 Low
2029 2029-S286 7.1% Low 4/5 5.7 3/5 Low
2030 2030-S292 6.0% Low 4/5 4.8 3/5 Low
2031 2031-S281 9.4% Low 4/5 7.5 3/5 Low
2032 2032-S280 9.6% Low 4/5 7.7 3/5 Low
2033 2033-S290 7.5% Low 4/5 6.0 3/5 Low
2034 2034-S288 8.7% Low 4/5 7.0 3/5 Low
2035 2035-S291 7.5% Low 4/5 6.0 3/5 Low
2036 2036-S286 9.2% Low 4/5 7.4 3/5 Low

READ THE DATA

Scenario-register literacy

Learn why repeated annual rows are intentional, why probability bands do not add, and why warning indicators are not event confirmation.

Open the guide

CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

Review the rules that prevent the 1999–2026 historical ledger from silently becoming future fact.

Open the boundary guide

RETURN TO HISTORY

1999–2026 event explorer

Browse the unchanged historical and contemporary source records before crossing into fictional material.

Open historical replay