Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
PsychologicalWar.orgPeople before labels.

FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2035-S121Track W003Q4 2035

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2035 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 16.5% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2035-S283Track CH007Any quarter 2035

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2035 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 8.1% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Moderate-high
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q2 2035
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 2427 · TRACK CE018

East Asian semiconductor ecosystem: Supply-chain compromise propagates across vendors — 2035 outlook

In 2035, the modeled trigger or precursor is: Against a background of strategic technology competition, export controls and extreme concentration of advanced production, a trusted update, component or managed service is found to have distributed unauthorized access across many organizations. The affected environment is chip design, manufacturing recipes, equipment software and supplier networks. The compromise exploits concentration and trust relationships rather than a single target, producing simultaneous investigations across countries and sectors. The scenario matters because semiconductors are foundational to civilian industry, AI, communications and weapons systems. By the mid-2030s, the most serious cyber events are likely to combine data theft, service disruption, autonomous decision systems and cross-domain coercion. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 35.1% (Elevated), with consequence magnitude 5/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2035-S026
Track ID
CE018
Illustrative window
Q2 2035
Category
Cyber / espionage
Impact scope
Global
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
Hsinchu and Northeast Asian technology corridors · Taiwan / South Korea / Japan / United States / China
Coordinate precision
Technology-cluster centroid; not a facility coordinate
Confidence label
Moderate-high
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
35.1%
Band
Elevated
Magnitude
5/5
Weighted score
35.1/100
Planning priority
5/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

Against a background of strategic technology competition, export controls and extreme concentration of advanced production, a trusted update, component or managed service is found to have distributed unauthorized access across many organizations.

Named actor classes

state intelligence services; semiconductor firms; equipment suppliers; cloud providers; export-control authorities

Warning indicators

similar anomalies across unrelated organizations; emergency vendor advisories; certificate revocations; unusual update behavior; sudden procurement holds

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

how far the compromise propagated, whether dormant access remains and whether a state, criminal group or insider is responsible

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2035: Organizations disconnect affected products, delay operations and compete for scarce forensic and replacement capacity. Sector-level effects include production delays, emergency audits and abrupt restrictions on data and personnel access.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2036–2038: Governments mandate software bills of materials, stronger supplier assurance and coordinated disclosure while affected vendors lose market access. Over one to three years, governments subsidize duplicate capacity, tighten screening and prosecute or sanction implicated networks.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2039–2045: Supply chains become more transparent but also more regionalized, with governments treating key digital components as strategic goods. Over four to ten years, the semiconductor ecosystem fragments into partially incompatible trusted blocs with higher costs and slower diffusion.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment; used for current threat vectors and regional baselines. The scenario and probability are independently constructed.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-CE018
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

Open the claim-specific review docket

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-CE018
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

High-level defensive cyber/counterintelligence scenario; no exploit, persistence, evasion or targeting instructions are included. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: CE018

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track CE018
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S032 25.1% Moderate 5/5 25.1 5/5 Moderate-high
2028 2028-S030 26.2% Moderate 5/5 26.2 5/5 Moderate-high
2029 2029-S025 28.0% Moderate 5/5 28.0 5/5 Moderate-high
2030 2030-S024 28.8% Moderate 5/5 28.8 5/5 Moderate-high
2031 2031-S023 30.6% Elevated 5/5 30.6 5/5 Moderate-high
2032 2032-S022 32.6% Elevated 5/5 32.6 5/5 Moderate-high
2033 2033-S029 31.5% Elevated 5/5 31.5 5/5 Moderate-high
2034 2034-S019 35.0% Elevated 5/5 35.0 5/5 Moderate-high
2035 2035-S026 35.1% Elevated 5/5 35.1 5/5 Moderate-high
2036 2036-S023 36.9% Elevated 5/5 36.9 5/5 Moderate-high

READ THE DATA

Scenario-register literacy

Learn why repeated annual rows are intentional, why probability bands do not add, and why warning indicators are not event confirmation.

Open the guide

CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

Review the rules that prevent the 1999–2026 historical ledger from silently becoming future fact.

Open the boundary guide

RETURN TO HISTORY

1999–2026 event explorer

Browse the unchanged historical and contemporary source records before crossing into fictional material.

Open historical replay