Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
PsychologicalWar.orgPeople before labels.

FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S122Track W003Q2 2029

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2029 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 15.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2029-S259Track CH007Q3–Q4 2029

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2029 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 9.3% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Low-moderate
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q2 2029
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 694 · TRACK G008

Major security alliance fractures over burden sharing and crisis commitments — 2029 outlook

In 2029, the modeled trigger or precursor is: a member declines support during a major crisis or threatens withdrawal over spending, trade or domestic political disputes. Uncertainty about collective commitments changes deterrence even without formal dissolution. Adversaries test seams, while smaller allies hedge through rearmament, bilateral pacts or accommodation. Near-term political stress is amplified by polarization, cost-of-living pressure and contested information environments. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 17.9% (Moderate), with consequence magnitude 5/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2029-S093
Track ID
G008
Illustrative window
Q2 2029
Category
Governance / political
Impact scope
Global
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
Brussels, Washington and allied capitals · Multinational alliance
Coordinate precision
Representative alliance-headquarters city centroid
Confidence label
Low-moderate
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
17.9%
Band
Moderate
Magnitude
5/5
Weighted score
17.9/100
Planning priority
5/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

a member declines support during a major crisis or threatens withdrawal over spending, trade or domestic political disputes.

Named actor classes

allied governments; defense ministries; legislatures; publics; adversary states

Warning indicators

conditional defense statements; canceled exercises; basing disputes; vetoes on contingency planning; public withdrawal threats

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

whether rhetoric translates into policy, how adversaries respond and whether shared threats restore cohesion

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2029: Emergency summits and public recriminations occur. Military planners review assumptions and markets price regional security risk.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2030–2032: Defense spending and bilateral agreements rise, but duplication and mistrust reduce efficiency. Some states pursue greater strategic autonomy.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2033–2039: The alliance either reforms around clearer obligations or evolves into a thinner political framework. Global military balances and nuclear debates shift.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

NATO Allied Command Transformation strategic-foresight material; used for drivers of future security environments and scenario framing.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-G008
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

Open the claim-specific review docket

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-G008
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

High-level governance and resilience scenario only. It does not provide instructions for coercion, election interference, evasion, violent mobilization or attacks on public institutions. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: G008

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track G008
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S107 15.8% Moderate 5/5 15.8 5/5 Low-moderate
2028 2028-S108 16.6% Moderate 5/5 16.6 5/5 Low-moderate
2029 2029-S093 17.9% Moderate 5/5 17.9 5/5 Low-moderate
2030 2030-S109 16.9% Moderate 5/5 16.9 5/5 Low-moderate
2031 2031-S110 16.9% Moderate 5/5 16.9 5/5 Low-moderate
2032 2032-S107 17.2% Moderate 5/5 17.2 5/5 Low-moderate
2033 2033-S106 18.3% Moderate 5/5 18.3 5/5 Low-moderate
2034 2034-S103 19.1% Moderate 5/5 19.1 5/5 Low-moderate
2035 2035-S104 19.0% Moderate 5/5 19.0 5/5 Low-moderate
2036 2036-S106 19.2% Moderate 5/5 19.2 5/5 Low-moderate

READ THE DATA

Scenario-register literacy

Learn why repeated annual rows are intentional, why probability bands do not add, and why warning indicators are not event confirmation.

Open the guide

CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

Review the rules that prevent the 1999–2026 historical ledger from silently becoming future fact.

Open the boundary guide

RETURN TO HISTORY

1999–2026 event explorer

Browse the unchanged historical and contemporary source records before crossing into fictional material.

Open historical replay