Educational companion dossier · Fact, interpretation, lived experience, clinical education, fiction, and mechanics are labeled separately. Scope & safety
PsychologicalWar.orgPeople before labels.

FICTIONAL PLANNING REGISTER

World-event scenarios, 2027–2036

Explore 3,000 annualized scenario rows from the supplied workbook. Every row is fictional, every numerical estimate is source-authored and non-calibrated, and every consequence path is illustrative rather than predictive.

Browse scenarios Inspect evidence lineage Inspect assumptions Return to the 1999–2026 record
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Source-bounded scenario register
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
2027–2036
Review
Exact workbook bytes preserved; scenario assumptions, baselines, and estimates require claim-specific review
How to read this register

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST. Probability fields are source-authored analytical estimates, not calibrated forecasts and not additive. Consequence scores are comparison aids, not expected casualties, financial losses, or site rankings. Coordinates are broad centroids, not target locations.

Scenario rows
3,000
Scenario tracks
300
Years
2027–2036
Rows per year
300
Baseline source URLs
19

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2030-S114Track W003Q3 2030

Iran nuclear threshold or safeguards crisis — 2030 outlook

Nuclear proliferation / safeguards crisis · Tehran and Persian Gulf region

Nuclear / WMD · Moderate 16.0% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 5/5

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

2030-S267Track CH007Q1–Q2 2030

Large earthquake strikes a major urban fault zone — 2030 outlook

Earthquake / urban catastrophe · Istanbul or a comparable high-exposure metropolitan fault zone

Climate / health · Low 8.9% source estimate · magnitude 5/5 · priority 3/5
FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST The provenance of this block requires editorial review.
Confidence
Moderate
Sources
1
Independent corroboration
0
Date range
Q1 2030
Review
Scenario premise, probability, and consequences require claim-specific review

FICTIONAL SCENARIO — NOT HISTORICAL, NOT A FORECAST

SOURCE ROW 1072 · TRACK G002

Contested national election triggers prolonged unrest and economic shutdowns — 2030 outlook

In 2030, the modeled trigger or precursor is: a close election is marred by credible procedural failures, disinformation or delayed results, and losing parties reject the outcome. Mass demonstrations, strikes and localized violence disrupt transport and commerce. The pivotal question is whether legal institutions can adjudicate disputes before competing political camps establish parallel narratives of legitimacy. By the early 2030s, institutional trust and fiscal capacity become central determinants of whether shocks produce reform or prolonged instability. The annual probability is an approximate analytical estimate of 21.4% (Moderate), with consequence magnitude 4/5. This row is a plausible, overlapping scenario—not a prediction.

Stable scenario ID
2030-S171
Track ID
G002
Illustrative window
Q1 2030
Category
Governance / political
Impact scope
Continental
Outcome direction
Adverse
Broad geography
National capital and major urban centers · Politically polarized state (illustrative)
Coordinate precision
Illustrative capital-city centroid
Confidence label
Moderate
Operational use
Not allowed by this educational transformation

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Annual estimate
21.4%
Band
Moderate
Magnitude
4/5
Weighted score
17.1/100
Planning priority
4/5

Workbook formula: probability ÷ 100 × magnitude × 20. It is a comparison aid only. Scenario probabilities overlap and must not be summed.

Scenario premise

a close election is marred by credible procedural failures, disinformation or delayed results, and losing parties reject the outcome.

Named actor classes

incumbent and opposition parties; electoral commission; courts; police and military; protesters; media

Warning indicators

attacks on election offices; unexplained result delays; partisan security rhetoric; opposition withdrawal; large pre-positioned protest camps

Indicators are planning prompts, not proof that the scenario is occurring and not a monitoring or targeting instruction.

Key uncertainties

independence of courts and election administrators, cohesion of security forces and willingness of leaders to accept mediated outcomes

ILLUSTRATIVE CONSEQUENCE PATH — NOT A PREDICTION

Conditional consequence sequence

  1. 0–30 days

    If this scenario occurs in 2030: Curfews, demonstrations and internet or transport disruptions affect major cities. Security-force conduct and evidence preservation shape whether escalation continues.

  2. 1–3 years

    During 2031–2033: Mediation, reruns or power-sharing may reduce violence, but investment, tourism and tax revenue remain depressed. Armed or criminal groups can exploit the vacuum.

  3. 4–10 years

    Across 2034–2040: Electoral institutions are reformed or further captured. Repeated unresolved contests raise emigration, capital flight and the risk of authoritarian consolidation.

Baseline source — not endorsement of this scenario or estimate

WEF Global Risks Report 2026; used as a broad horizon-scanning baseline. The row is a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast from the source.

Open the workbook’s baseline source

BASELINE START POINT ONLY

Track evidence review remains open

Review ID
SER-G002
Review state
READY FOR CLAIM-SPECIFIC REVIEW
Premise verification
NOT REVIEWED
Probability calibration
NOT PERFORMED
Independent origins
0
Assignment state
OPEN_UNASSIGNED

A source relationship records where review can begin. It does not verify this fictional premise, calibrate the annual estimates, validate the consequence path, or grant operational authority.

Open the claim-specific review docket

ASSUMPTION IS NOT FACT

Track assumptions and retirement remain open

Assumption ID
SAR-G002
Premise review
NOT REVIEWED
Indicator review
NOT REVIEWED
Retirement state
NOT EVALUATED

The sidecar exposes dependencies, disconfirming questions, alternative explanations, false-alarm risks, consequence interruptions, and retirement triggers. It does not predict, monitor, or retire this track.

Open the assumption review docket
Safety and use boundary

High-level governance and resilience scenario only. It does not provide instructions for coercion, election interference, evasion, violent mobilization or attacks on public institutions. This site adds no tactical target data, exploit steps, evasion methods, weapon construction, casualty optimization, or authorization for real-world action.

SOURCE-AUTHORED ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE — NOT CALIBRATED OR ADDITIVE

Ten-year track: G002

The workbook annualizes the same scenario family once per year so readers can compare how its assumptions and numerical estimates change. This is not a time-series forecast.

Source-authored annualized rows for track G002
YearScenario IDProbabilityBandMagnitudeWeighted scorePriorityConfidence
2027 2027-S153 22.6% Moderate 4/5 18.1 4/5 Moderate
2028 2028-S165 21.9% Moderate 4/5 17.5 4/5 Moderate
2029 2029-S168 21.8% Moderate 4/5 17.4 4/5 Moderate
2030 2030-S171 21.4% Moderate 4/5 17.1 4/5 Moderate
2031 2031-S178 22.5% Moderate 4/5 18.0 4/5 Moderate
2032 2032-S184 21.9% Moderate 4/5 17.5 4/5 Moderate
2033 2033-S181 22.3% Moderate 4/5 17.8 4/5 Moderate
2034 2034-S173 23.5% Moderate 4/5 18.8 4/5 Moderate
2035 2035-S174 24.7% Moderate 4/5 19.8 4/5 Moderate
2036 2036-S174 24.0% Moderate 4/5 19.2 4/5 Moderate

READ THE DATA

Scenario-register literacy

Learn why repeated annual rows are intentional, why probability bands do not add, and why warning indicators are not event confirmation.

Open the guide

CHECK THE BOUNDARY

History, scenarios, and projections

Review the rules that prevent the 1999–2026 historical ledger from silently becoming future fact.

Open the boundary guide

RETURN TO HISTORY

1999–2026 event explorer

Browse the unchanged historical and contemporary source records before crossing into fictional material.

Open historical replay